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Well my mom is pretty discouraged today after reading a housing market prediction for 2009 in Money Market Magazine. Yes, she knows that this is just one prediction out of many but after such a tumultuous two years more bad news is pretty depressing.
My mom works really hard for her sellers and will continue to do so. Things with the housing market will eventually turn around. We all need to stay positive and encouraged!
Forecast 2009: Your Home
By Stephen Gandel, Money Magazine
Nov 11th, 2008
(Money Magazine) -- Forget the old saw that all real estate is local. What's pummeling housing prices in your nabe is the same thing that's hurting them around the country: the credit crisis.
You know the drill - banks' troubles have made it harder for many home buyers to get mortgages and those who do qualify have to pay more. A borrower with good credit and a 20% down payment recently got charged an interest rate of 6.7%, on average, according to HSH Associates.
It's true that this rate is not historically high (rates often surpassed 9% in the early 1990s). But it's more than the 6.2% that the same borrower would have paid at the beginning of 2008.
The fact that mortgage rates have remained stubbornly elevated despite the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac leads some experts to believe that those rates are not headed down anytime soon.
Then look at the fact that 18.6 million homes in this country are now sitting vacant, more than at any other time since the Census Bureau began tracking that figure in the 1960s. And that 2.8% of U.S. mortgage loans are now at least three months in arrears, up from 1.4% a year ago. That rate is projected to peak in early 2009.
But if a recession lasts for three-quarters of the year, as some economists are predicting, the number of foreclosures could remain high longer. Add it all up and you have another lousy year for real estate.
Home prices are down 20% nationwide since their peak in July 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Economist Nouriel Roubini of New York University, who accurately predicted the housing slide and credit crisis, expects another 20% decline in home prices next year. Patrick Newport of economic forecasting firm Global Insight projects a 15% drop.
The damage will likely hit even areas that have so far escaped many problems, such as New York City. "We don't see the market turning until late 2009," says Newport.
The wild card:
· How much home values fall early in the year
If they go so low that investors can start renting out homes for enough to cover their mortgage payments, we could see a wave of people snapping up bargain houses in 2009 - which could push prices higher by the time the next 12 months draw to a close.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.
By Stephen Gandel, Money Magazine
Nov 11th, 2008
(Money Magazine) -- Forget the old saw that all real estate is local. What's pummeling housing prices in your nabe is the same thing that's hurting them around the country: the credit crisis.
You know the drill - banks' troubles have made it harder for many home buyers to get mortgages and those who do qualify have to pay more. A borrower with good credit and a 20% down payment recently got charged an interest rate of 6.7%, on average, according to HSH Associates.
It's true that this rate is not historically high (rates often surpassed 9% in the early 1990s). But it's more than the 6.2% that the same borrower would have paid at the beginning of 2008.
The fact that mortgage rates have remained stubbornly elevated despite the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac leads some experts to believe that those rates are not headed down anytime soon.
Then look at the fact that 18.6 million homes in this country are now sitting vacant, more than at any other time since the Census Bureau began tracking that figure in the 1960s. And that 2.8% of U.S. mortgage loans are now at least three months in arrears, up from 1.4% a year ago. That rate is projected to peak in early 2009.
But if a recession lasts for three-quarters of the year, as some economists are predicting, the number of foreclosures could remain high longer. Add it all up and you have another lousy year for real estate.
Home prices are down 20% nationwide since their peak in July 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Economist Nouriel Roubini of New York University, who accurately predicted the housing slide and credit crisis, expects another 20% decline in home prices next year. Patrick Newport of economic forecasting firm Global Insight projects a 15% drop.
The damage will likely hit even areas that have so far escaped many problems, such as New York City. "We don't see the market turning until late 2009," says Newport.
The wild card:
· How much home values fall early in the year
If they go so low that investors can start renting out homes for enough to cover their mortgage payments, we could see a wave of people snapping up bargain houses in 2009 - which could push prices higher by the time the next 12 months draw to a close.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.
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